The Century-Defining Aircraft Carriers and the Weapon that Could Make Them Obsolete
Since World War II, aircraft carriers have been the centerpiece of U.S. naval power. But a new study warns that this era may be coming to an end. The development of missile technology by China has shifted the balance of power, raising doubts about the future of aircraft carriers.
## An Obsession Born in 1996
The origins of this strategy date back to the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis. China witnessed two U.S. aircraft carrier groups deploying near its borders, exposing its inability to respond effectively. This humiliation led to the development of a clear doctrine: investing in anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) capable of long-range strikes. The DF-21D, known as the “carrier killer,” has a range of over 1,500 km and travels at Mach 10. In addition, the DF-26B, the “Guam Killer,” has a range exceeding 4,000 km, targeting both naval and land-based assets.
## The Network Enabling the Strike
However, these missiles do not operate in isolation. What makes this threat significant is China’s intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) network supporting it. Satellites, radar systems, high-altitude drones like the WZ-8, and even a military-equipped fishing fleet and submarines form a kill chain designed to track and target moving aircraft carriers. The DF-17 adds complexity with hypersonic glide vehicles, making detection more challenging for defensive systems like Aegis, potentially overwhelming naval defenses with a single impact.
## The Dilemma of the U.S. Navy
Analysts suggest that the U.S. Navy faces a unique scenario: operating far from Chinese shores, diminishing the effectiveness of its fighters, or risking exposure to a barrage of missiles. The vulnerability of not just a military platform but the potential end of a longstanding doctrine is at stake. As analysts warn, the era of untouchable aircraft carriers may be coming to an end.
