The Potential Conflict Initiation Triggered by a Power Outage: A Strategic Proposal by a Former NATO Commander for the Outbreak of a Worldwide Conflict in 2025.
British General Richard Shirreff, who previously served as Deputy Supreme Allied Commander of NATO in Europe, has presented a chilling scenario that, although reminiscent of a plot from a Tom Clancy novel, he deems plausible. He suggests that the onset of a potential third world war might not involve missiles, but rather commence with a simple power outage in the Baltic region.
### The Unleashing of Chaos
On the hypothetical date of November 3, 2025, Vilnius experiences a sudden blackout. This blackout leads to the cessation of essential services, such as banks and hospitals. The power grid, still linked to the outdated Soviet BRELL system, falls victim to a malware attack. What begins as a power outage quickly escalates to the government implementing martial law.
In neighboring Belarus, agitators emerge, stoking unrest, while the cyberattack spreads to Latvia and Estonia. Consequently, the three Baltic nations find themselves isolated and susceptible to further chaos.
### Russia’s Strategic Maneuver
Russian forces start to amass in Kaliningrad and along the Belarusian border, purportedly to protect the Russian-speaking populace. SU-27 and MiG-31 aircraft patrol the skies, asserting aerial superiority. Tensions rise as Lithuanian troops clash with potential Chechen mercenaries within the Suwałki corridor.
Shirreff envisions a Russian offensive aimed at severing the sole land route connecting the Baltics to the rest of Europe. NATO is compelled to respond, albeit sluggishly.
### The Western Paralysis
Secretary General Mark Rutte invokes Article 5 of NATO in response to the escalating crisis. However, President Donald Trump, situated in the White House, downplays the severity of the situation and resists engaging in a conflict deemed insignificant in his eyes. Trump derogatorily refers to Lithuania as a failed state on social media.
As the cornerstone of European security since its inception in 1949, NATO begins to crumble, leaving the world aghast at the disintegration of its once-unified front.
### China’s Strategic Move
Meanwhile, China perceives an opportunity amidst the turmoil. On November 6, Chinese forces launch a massive assault on Taiwan, employing thousands of missiles, swarms of drones, and special operations units to swiftly incapacitate the island’s defenses. Chinese warships blockade the strait, preparing for a massive amphibious assault.
In this hypothetical scenario, NATO faces a standstill, and the United States opts not to intervene militarily. Shirreff underscores the implicit message behind such events: the vulnerability and precariousness of the global order under duress.
