The Ozone: the gas that will heat up the Earth more than expected – the climate paradox that worries scientists
The ban on CFCs saved the ozone layer, but that environmental success comes with an unexpected twist. A study published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics reveals that the ozone recovery will contribute more to global warming than previously thought, adding 0.27 watts per square meter by 2050. This finding presents a dilemma: protecting ourselves from UV radiation is crucial, but it also strengthens the greenhouse effect.
The Ozone: Protector and Greenhouse
Ozone plays a dual role. It is essential for life, but in both layers of the atmosphere, it acts as a greenhouse gas, trapping heat. The research team calculated that its impact on warming will be 40% greater than estimated, making it the second-largest contributor after CO₂.
Pollution and Recovery: Two Faces of the Same Phenomenon
The study identified two main drivers of ozone increase:
– Stratospheric recovery following the elimination of CFCs and HCFCs.
– Tropospheric pollution generated by vehicles, factories, and power plants, which increases levels near the ground.
According to models, each factor will contribute roughly half of the projected radiative forcing. The most affected regions will be the Middle East, India, and Southeast Asia, where pollution already compromises public health.
An Environmental Paradox
Professor Bill Collins, the study’s lead author, explains that banning CFCs “remains the right decision to protect human health,” but admits that its side effect will be greater warming. It’s a scientific paradox: saving us from skin cancer will lead to more warming.
Climate Policies Under Review
The models used the SSP3-7.0 scenario, reflecting a future with low control of pollutant emissions and a significant increase in methane and NOx. In this context, ozone will add 0.27 W/m² of heating between 2015 and 2050.
Researchers warn that climate policies must be updated. It’s not enough to protect the ozone layer; drastic reductions in tropospheric ozone precursors are needed, along with integrated strategies that consider both human health and the environment.
The Future Dilemma
Science faces a delicate challenge: ozone is essential for blocking lethal radiation, but it inevitably contributes to warming. The coming years will require balancing the defense of the protective layer with strong measures against pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. What was once seen as a definitive victory has become a reminder of the complexity of the Earth’s climate.
