What are the odds of dying from an asteroid strike, or other terrible things?
It seems like a macabre game. “What would you prefer?”. However, it is a research project that calculates the probabilities that the average person has of dying from causes such as car accidents, carbon monoxide poisoning, a lightning strike or… because a giant asteroid destroys Earth. The probability of an asteroid annihilating planet Earth is low, but not zero. In fact, a recently discovered asteroid was calculated to have [insert number here]. Fortunately, scientists later revised those calculations and the probability dropped to [insert number here], but the asteroid 2024 YR4 reminds us of how vulnerable we are.
In a new study, researchers calculated the probabilities of an asteroid colliding with Earth over the average person’s lifetime, and the chances of the impact killing us, comparing them with the probabilities of other potentially fatal things.
###Comparison with other rare causes of death
To their surprise, researchers found that when faced with an asteroid impact, you are more likely to die than if you contracted rabies. The study was published on the arXiv site, prior to peer review. They also found that there are more chances of an asteroid impact than of being struck by lightning. However, if you are struck by lightning, there are higher chances of it being fatal.
Calculating the probability of an asteroid impact is complicated. Researchers analyzed data on the population of near-Earth objects and previous risk assessments of potentially hazardous asteroids, along with other space rocks over 140 meters wide. They then calculated the frequency of impacts with these objects and compared it with data on other horrific ways to die and the probabilities of them happening to an average person over their lifetime.
Of course, no one has died from an asteroid impact on Earth, but [insert number here] died in the US in 2024 alone due to car accidents. However, the study “places the impact with a nearby space object in the context of potential fatal events that could happen to a person,” the researchers wrote. “The purpose of this work is to place the probability of an impact with a nearby space object within the mental framework of more well-known events such as traffic accidents or animal attacks.”
NASA already has plans for such a catastrophic event in 2022, to test whether we could deflect potentially dangerous space rocks heading towards us. The DART mission was a success, and there is a tracking satellite heading towards the same asteroid to study the effects of that impact up close.
