A Unexpected Impact Could Change Lunar History Forever!
The asteroid 2024 YR4 caused a wave of concern when initial calculations indicated a possible collision with Earth. Although the direct threat was ruled out, its new trajectory has caught the attention of scientists. What if this celestial body were to impact the Moon? The implications of such a scenario could extend from the lunar surface to our own orbiting satellites.
### A threat that veered off… but didn’t disappear
When 2024 YR4 was detected in late 2024, its chances of colliding with Earth reached 3.1%. Although that threat dissipated thanks to more precise observations, another emerged: its possible impact on the Moon by the end of 2032.
With a diameter of about 60 meters, this “city killer” could cause an explosion visible from Earth and leave a lunar crater 1 kilometer wide. According to NASA, knowledge about its orbit has improved by 20%, but its collision with our natural satellite cannot yet be ruled out.
### What would happen if the asteroid hits the Moon?
While there would be no direct danger to humans, an impact of this magnitude on the Moon could generate unexpected consequences. Scientists estimate that the collision would release large amounts of dust and rocks, some of which could travel at extreme speeds and reach our planet in the form of a striking meteor shower.
The International Space Station will no longer be in orbit by then, but the satellites that keep our communication and navigation systems running could be threatened. Even fragments the size of a sugar lump could cause damage if they impact at high speed.
### A unique opportunity for science
Witnessing such an impact in real-time would be an unprecedented event. According to Paul Wiegert, an astronomer at the University of Western Ontario, this event would allow for studying how the lunar surface responds to a large-scale impact. We could obtain key information about debris dispersion and crater formation.
Moreover, these types of collisions could become a new line of research for space defense. While current efforts focus on protecting Earth, perhaps it is time to consider expanding that shield to the Moon.
### Is it worth intervening before the impact?
Although the risk is still low (4.3%), scientists are already wondering if action should be taken to divert YR4. NASA’s DART mission, which successfully diverted an asteroid in 2022, demonstrates that altering the trajectory of these celestial bodies is possible. However, sending a similar mission to the Moon would involve a much more complex analysis and is still under evaluation.
The decision will depend on further studies, especially when YR4 reappears around 2028. Meanwhile, the scientific community is preparing observations with telescopes like [telescopio] to refine calculations and decide if intervention is necessary.
[Source: ]
